From Portales, NM – “If Only I had Known”

If I had only known! How many times have you said that in your life? Grab some caffeine and join me for a tour of our possible water future.

Do you remember that time when you meant to go see someone but something came up, only to get a call that something had happened to them? If you had only known. What about that time you decided to dabble in stocks, play some poker, took that sure bet, and lost everything? If you had only known. Then, there’s that time you bought a beautiful car, and three weeks later the transmission flew into pieces. If you had only known. 

We can’t predict the future with total accuracy, BUT, in many cases, we can get what would be called a ‘weighted decision’ of good odds. High probability.

Some of our City leaders that have been here for a decade or more have possessed information that foretold the future of Portales regarding our water resources. They were given the chance to be proactive. They chose this action, or that action, or more often than not non-action and now find themselves in the uncomfortable position of  ‘if we had we only known.’

Yet, they DID know, with high probability, but the decision was made to ride out the storm and wait for the Ute Lake Pipeline to save Portales. I have heard it said too many times that “no one on the City Council is a water expert.” Then, why don’t they listen to the hired experts? You know, the ones we have paid millions of taxpayer dollars to tell us about our water future probability.

The point is, it has been projected with high probability that Portales will run out of water prior to the pipeline being finished. A multitude of independent experts (Charles Wilson, Geoffrey Rawling, etc.) were paid large amounts of money (your money) for their water intelligence to study our situation. This expertise established the phrase and concept of “bridging the gap” between where we are now and Ute Pipeline delivery of surface water. For example, it was recommended that our City reduce water consumption from 900 million to 700 million gallons per year to bridge that gap. Today, we have failed 4 years in a row by 200 million gallons per year, by continuing to use 900 million gallons per year. So, over a full year of our projected water savings (800 million gallons) is gone.

There is a substantial probability (Whipple Report, 1994) that the Ute Pipeline Project will not deliver the amount of water originally projected. This Project is estimated to be completed in 2030 and requires two years to be tested, thereby producing benefit no earlier than 2032. There are  also a multitude of factors (money, weather, physics) that could delay this project and/or reduce its promised capacity.

As a community, as we speak, our actions are literally choosing IF we run ourselves out of water and how many years we want to be without water.

The ultimate point is this is not about green grass, washing your car, or resolution documents. You can cite ‘quality of life’ as your motivating force for rescinding water restrictions, and I ask what is our quality of life with no water? You can cite ‘people moving away’ or ‘property value declining’ as reasons why the City Council recently voted to reduce Stage 3 Emergency Water Restrictions from a level 3 to a level 2 to allow people to begin watering their yards, and I further ask how much will your property be worth or how many people will move away from a City that has insufficient water?

I honestly don’t think (opinion) this situation can be totally repaired. There is a very good possibility we will never be able to return to our version of ‘normal.’ Kind of like what Covid did to us. Understand that I, 100%, hope that I am wrong, but we may have to change the way we think in order to ‘water survive.’ I do think we can intervene and turn this situation around and have an excellent quality of life for many years to come BUT not on the current path we are following.

I have been told “no one knows Mike, you might be wrong Mike, that’s a pessimistic view Mike.” I accept that, but I’m also 100% fine with it. If I’m right, then our governance better wake up and start trying to understand the dynamics that are happening to our water resources and act accordingly instead of five years from now saying, one more time, “If we had only known.”

If I’m wrong, you and I will both have more water. . . 

Mike Davidson was born and raised in Portales, New Mexico. Since Portales went on Stage 3 Emergency Water Restrictions in June 2023, he has launched and administered the Portales Water Facebook page and advocated fiercely for water security. He is currently a member of the Water Advisory Committee and played a central role in its creation.