Our Water Crisis

Water is the lifeblood of New Mexico’s economy and communities, yet we face a growing crisis of scarcity driven by overuse and climate change.  The stark reality is this: our current path leads to a future where water resources are severely depleted, jeopardizing our environment, economy, and way of life. New Mexico’s economic well-being critically depends on having sufficient water. Without water security, we have no economic security. We are already in one of the driest periods in the last millennium. Due to climate change, New Mexico’s best scientists project an average of 25% less streamflow and groundwater recharge within the next 50 years. Already, Rio Grande streamflow under the bridge to Los Alamos (at the Otowi Gage) has dropped 25% since 1988.  With increased pumping caused by drought, a decrease in groundwater levels are accelerating across most of the state, to the point of complete depletion. Ongoing overuse, exacerbated by climate change, is a crisis that New Mexico is not facing up to. 

Our pressing concerns:

• Water Overuse – We continuously overuse water at a time when we need to conserve and equitably share our limited water resources.
• Climate Impact – Climate change is creating a more arid environment in our state and depleting water sources.
• Huge Opportunity Costs – Ignoring increasing aridity and not starting now to take advantage of the opportunities at hand exponentially increases the crisis.

WATER OVERUSE 

Water overuse in NM is a pressing environmental and societal issue with significant implications for both natural ecosystems and communities, large and small. The state’s arid to semi-arid climate, coupled with growing populations and agricultural demands, has led to an unsustainable rate of water consumption. Farmers have run short of surface water, but those with wells pump groundwater instead.  The water itself is free.  Groundwater irrigation water is generally unmonitored and unregulated. Failure to recognize water problems, to know how much groundwater we have left, or to realistically plan ahead has created a crisis NM has not fully embraced.

New Mexico has only one managed aquifer—the artesian aquifer supplying groundwater irrigation around Roswell and Artesia. Ongoing irrigation pumping and mineral extraction have depleted and ruined New Mexico’s non-artesian aquifers just as surely as overuse and waste was destroying the Roswell Artesian Basin aquifer when the NM Legislature passed laws in the 1930s to stop the aquifer destruction. The Ogallala Aquifer is a poster child for mismanagement, with Portales and other eastern NM communities running short of groundwater in 2023.

Some significant factors related to water overuse:

• Agriculture. Irrigation is the largest water user in New Mexico, driving significant groundwater declines and excessive upstream junior surface water use that is ‘out-of-priority,’ depriving downstream senior rights of their water. Statewide, about 80% of water use is for agriculture. Huge amounts of water are used to export agricultural products, including dairy and pecans. Many agricultural regions irrigate crops with groundwater that will never be replaced. Other irrigation districts rely on streamflow, supplemented by groundwater pumping. Over pumping of groundwater to meet agricultural demands has caused declining water levels, lowered well yields and increased costs, led to abandoned farms, and land fissures and subsidence. In some areas, irrigation pumping has drained aquifers, leaving communities, irrigators, and rural homes without water.
• Over-pumping. Over pumping groundwater damages aquifers. Since 2003, mining groundwater (pumping water in excess of recharge) to grow pecans in the Lower Rio Grande (LRG), after the surface water dropped hundreds of thousands of acre-feet per year, has damaged the groundwater system. In the LRG permanent damage is accelerating due to the intrusion of brackish water and salt accumulation. 
• Development. In addition to agriculture, other sectors contribute to water overuse. Urban development and population growth have increased water demand for domestic and industrial uses. Inefficient water practices, such as leaky infrastructure and inappropriate water laws and policies exacerbate the problem. Developers of cities and communities, including Rio Rancho, Eldorado, and Placitas, supplied their developments by pumping local groundwater unsustainably. The communities are growing, the groundwater is mostly gone, and no good plans have been made for what comes next.  Using unsustainable treated oil field wastewater or deep brackish groundwater to develop communities and industries would cause similar future problems. 
• Overuse of the Rio Grande is Illegal.  Overuse of the Rio Grande’s waters in New Mexico that cause water shortages downstream violates the Rio Grande Compact, a law agreed to by Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and the United States, which allocates the Rio Grande’s water among the three states in times of plenty and scarcity.  Water uses that exceed compact allocations in the Middle Rio Grande take water that by law is allocated for uses downstream of Elephant Butte Dam.  Similarly, NM water uses in the Lower Rio Grande, below Elephant Butte, take water that belongs to Texas and the Republic of Mexico. As a state, we have been regularly failing to deliver sufficient water to Elephant Butte Reservoir as required to meet our obligations to downstream water users (see cumulative balance graph). For more than a decade, the trend has been downward. In 2023, the shortfall was 29,400 acre-feet (about 9.6 billion gallons). Our cumulative debt is now 121,500 acre-feet, and at 200,000 acre-feet debt, we violate this federal and state law. New Mexico has been litigating against Texas claims of overuse in the Lower Rio Grande since 2012. Without serious action by the State to reduce its uses in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico will find itself in the US Supreme Court over its Middle Rio Grande overuse before the litigation about overuse in the Lower Rio Grande is even complete. 

CLIMATE IMPACT 

Science unequivocally shows the world’s climate is warming at an alarming rate, primarily due to the increase of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. This warming trend has profound implications for New Mexico. The state has experienced a 3-degree Fahrenheit increase in average temperature since 1970, leading to a cascade of effects of reducing stream flows and aquifer recharge.

• Reduced Snowmelt Runoff: Warmer temperatures and dust deposition on high mountain snowfields lead to earlier snowmelt. This diminishes the crucial snowpack that serves as a natural reservoir, releasing the large volumes of snowmelt runoff that we depend on. Runoff comes downstream to acequias earlier, before crops need the water. The decline in spring snowmelt runoff plus losses caused by thirstier watersheds reduces this annual renewable water supply.
• Increased Evaporation and Transpiration: Higher temperatures exponentially accelerate evaporation rates from rivers, lakes, and reservoirs and transpiration by plants. Higher loss of water to the atmosphere further strains surface water supplies.
• Drought Intensification: Climate scientists tell us that the US Southwest is the red bullseye of climate change.  A bad year now will be similar to good years in the 2070’s, as temperatures rise and aridity increases. The water supply is already severely reduced and will continue to impact all uses.
• Wildfire Risk: Hotter and drier conditions increase the risk of wildfires, which can devastate forests, watersheds, and grasslands. Wildfires also impact water quality by increasing erosion and sedimentation in rivers and streams.
• Ecological Impacts: Changes in water availability and temperature regimes can disrupt aquatic ecosystems, harming fish populations and other wildlife. Reduced streamflow and drier conditions also stress riparian vegetation, leading to habitat loss and reduced biodiversity.
• Impacts on Agriculture: Agriculture, the largest water consumer in NM, is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Reduced water availability and increased drought conditions can lead to crop losses, livestock stress, and economic hardship for farmers and ranchers jeopardizing livelihoods across rural communities. This, in turn, has a cascading economic impact on the state, affecting local businesses, suppliers, and food processing industries that depend on a stable agricultural output. As production declines, New Mexico may face increased reliance on imported goods, rising food prices, and decreased agricultural exports, leading to a weakened economic base and reduced tax revenues.

These climate change impacts underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to adapt to a water-scarce future in New Mexico. Adaptation includes implementing water conservation strategies, investing in water infrastructure, developing drought resilience plans, and transitioning to more sustainable water management practices.